Mtsogoleri wa ndalama za gulu lachifalansa la Amundi: Ndi chiyani chomwe chingachitike pankhondo ku Ukraine?

Kumapeto kwa February, Russian Federation inayamba nkhondo ndi kuukira Ukraine. Ngakhale kuti boma la Russia silingathe kukondwerera kupambana kwake, m'malo mwake, lidatha kugwirizanitsa pafupifupi dziko lonse lapansi, lomwe linatsutsa mosapita m'mbali kuukira komweku. Momwemonso, mayiko a azungu abwera ndi zilango zingapo zogwira mtima kuti awononge chuma chawo. Koma kodi zinthu zidzapitirirabe bwanji? Mtsogoleri wolemekezeka wazachuma wa gulu lachifalansa la Amundi, Vincent Mortier, adanenapo za izi, molingana ndi momwe zinthu zonse zidzathera. Iye ananena mwachindunji maulosi amenewa.

Zotsatira mkati mwa masabata kapena miyezi

Njira yovomerezeka yotulutsira zovuta za Putin (kumbukirani Cuba mu 1962?) - Kukambitsirana bwino pakati pa Ukraine ndi Russia ndi / kapena kuyimitsidwa kwa zilango  

Zotsatira zazachuma

• Mabanki apakati abwereranso ku zolankhula zawo zanthawi zonse, kukula kudzachedwa ku Europe ndipo pali chiwopsezo cha kutsika kwachuma (kutengera zovuta zomwe zikuchitika komanso zolakwika za ECB kukwera kwamitengo ndi kuwongolera)
• Ogulitsa katundu kuchokera ku US ndi mayiko a LATAM ndi China adzakhala makalasi okondedwa

Misika yazachuma

• Chitetezo ndi chitetezo cha cyber chikuwonjezeka
• Magawo amakampani a IT amathanso kupindula ndi vutoli
• Mitengo yamagetsi imakhalabe yokwera mpaka pali mitundu yosiyanasiyana ya ogulitsa (zaka zingapo)

Russia idzapambana: kutha kwa ulamuliro wa Zelensky, boma latsopano

Zotsatira zazachuma

• Ukraine idzatsegula chitseko kuti Russia ipite patsogolo ku Ulaya, makamaka ku mayiko a Baltic ndi Poland
• Nkhondo yapachiweniweni ku Russia / Ukraine ndi kutayika kwakukulu kwa moyo
• Russia Imayesa NATO ndi Kuukira kwa Cyber ​​​​kapena Kubwezera, NATO Iyankha, Russia Iwoloka Red Line
• China idzafuna kuwonetsa malo ake mu dongosolo la dziko latsopano
  -> Mikangano ina ingabuke

Misika yazachuma

• Mitengo yamphamvu kwambiri
• Kusakhazikika kwa msika (misika idzachitapo kanthu kuti Russia ikhoza kuwoloka mzere wofiira wotsatira) - kuchepetsa ndalama ngati chiopsezo chenicheni (Europe)
• Kupeza ndalama zotetezeka, kugulitsa zinthu zamadzimadzi (equity ndi ngongole)
• Kufooka kwa euro

Nkhondo yapachiŵeniŵeni, kuzingidwa kwa Kiev, chiŵerengero chachikulu cha imfa (chofanana ndi Chechnya)  

Zotsatira zazachuma

• Kupha anthu ku Kiev ndi mizinda ina; kuchuluka kwa ozunzidwa sikuvomerezeka kwa nzika zaku Russia
• Izi zitha kutanthauza kulimbana mwachindunji ndi Kumadzulo (koma osati kukwera kwa nyukiliya)

Misika yazachuma

• Kutsika kwa msika ndi kugulitsa mantha

Russia idzataya: Ulamuliro wa Putin akuwopsezedwa ndi kutsutsa kwakukulu

• kukuipiraipira kuponderezana kwaulamuliro wapanyumba, padzakhala zipolowe kapena nkhondo yapachiweniweni ku Russia

Zotsatira zazachuma

• Russia ilowa m'mavuto azachuma komanso mavuto azachuma ndi kufalikira kwapadziko lonse lapansi ngati Russia yatsopano ikhala "Western satellite"

Misika yazachuma

• Zogulitsa m'misika, zomwe zimatchedwa dziko logawika, zimatha kujambula katundu waku America ndi Asia, mwinanso za ku Europe, ngati palibe kutsika kwachuma.

Kuchepa kwa Nuclear Kuthandizidwa ndi China: Rapid War Maneuvers

• EU/US ikukhazikitsa zilango zatsopano, chiwonetsero champhamvu mwachitukuko. China ithandiza mayiko akumadzulo kukana ziwawa.
• Russia idzasiya ntchito zankhondo. Chuma chazizira, dongosolo la ndale lidzakhalabe.

Zotsatira zazachuma

• Kuchedwa kwa zinthu (mafuta, gasi, faifi tambala, aluminiyamu, palladium, titaniyamu, chitsulo) kungayambitse kusokonezeka kwa bizinesi ndi kuchedwa.
• Kulimbikitsa kukula kwachuma padziko lonse lapansi
• Russia idzalowa m'mavuto azachuma komanso kugwa kwachuma (kuya kumadalira kutalika kwa nkhondo)
• Kuyesetsa kwachuma ndi ndalama kudzakhala kolimba mtima. ECB imabwerera kutali ndi normalization
• Mavuto a anthu othawa kwawo ku Ulaya
• Chiphunzitso chatsopano cha asilikali a ku Ulaya

Misika yazachuma

• Kupanikizika pamsika wamagetsi kumakhalabe
• Misika yazachuma m'madzi osadziwika (chifukwa cha chiwopsezo chokhazikika m'misika yaku Russia)
• Thawirani ku Ubwino (Malo Otetezeka)
• Kuchotsedwa kwa mabanki ena aku Russia ku SWIFT kudzathandizira kugwiritsa ntchito njira zina, monga cryptocurrencies (Etherum ndi ena)

Zotsatira za mkangano zitenga nthawi yayitali

Ntchito zankhondo zitayima, Ukraine ikukana, kuukira kwa Russia kukupitilira miyezi ingapo.

Kulimbana kwanthawi yayitali koma kukangana kochepa kwambiri

Zotsatira zazachuma

• Anthu wamba ndi ovulala pankhondo
• Kusokonezeka kwa maunyolo apadziko lonse lapansi
• Kuwonjezeka kwa kusakhutira kwa anthu ku Russia
• Kuchulukitsa zilango motsutsana ndi Russia
• Kukula kwa NATO, ndikulowa m'maiko a Nordic, sikungabweretse mkangano wachindunji wankhondo.
• Stagflation ku Europe
• ECB idzataya ufulu wake wodziimira. Idzakakamizika kuganiziranso zogula katundu wake (kuthandizira chitetezo ndi ndalama zosinthira mphamvu) mwachindunji kapena mwanjira ina.

Misika yazachuma

Kulimbana ndi Stagflation yapadziko Lonse: Mabanki apakati abwerera kutsogolo ndikuyenda kotsutsana kumapeto kwa nthawi yayitali ya zokolola komanso zachuma padziko lonse lapansi.

• Kulimbana ndi kuchuluka kwachuma padziko lonse lapansi: Mabanki aku Central abwereranso kumayendedwe otsutsana kumapeto kwa nthawi yayitali ya zokolola komanso zachuma padziko lonse lapansi.
• Mitengo yeniyeni idzakhalabe m'gawo loipa: pambuyo pa kuwongolera, osunga ndalama adzayang'ana pa ndalama, ngongole ndikuyang'ana magwero a chiyamikiro chenicheni m'misika ya Emerging (EM)
• Sakani zinthu zamadzimadzi zotetezeka (ndalama, zitsulo zamtengo wapatali, ndi zina)

Nkhondo yankhondo yayitali, yowopsa kwambiri: tiyeni tiyembekezere zoyipa

• Kugwiritsa ntchito zida za nyukiliya zotheka
• Chiwopsezo chapadziko lonse lapansi, kutsika kwapadziko lonse lapansi, kugwa kwamisika yazachuma komwe kudzakhalabe kosasunthika

Nthaŵi ya nkhondo ingalungamitse kuponderezedwa kwakukulu kwazachuma. Chiwongola dzanja chenicheni chidzakhalabe chozama kwambiri.