Daniel Hruska Ambiri a inu mwina mwawerengapo nkhani masiku aposachedwa za kuchepa kwachangu kwa madongosolo a zigawo (makamaka zowonetsera) za kupanga iPhone. Za mfundo imeneyi ife inu adadziwitsa ifenso timatero. Nthawi yomweyo zongopeka zidayamba kuti Apple ikukonzekera kuyambitsa miyezi isanu ndi umodzi yopanga, mwachitsanzo, kupanga wolowa m'malo mwa m'badwo wotsatira wa foni ya Apple (lembani dzina lanu nokha). Aneneri ena ayambanso kufalitsa mphekesera za chiyambi cha mapeto a Apple. M'malo mwake, tiyeni tiwone manambala ena ndikuwona momwe zinthu zilili.
Zonse zidayamba pa seva yaku Japan Nikkei. Nyuzipepala ya Wall Street Journal inagwiritsa ntchito mfundo zosatsimikiziridwa izi ndi chidwi: "Malamulo a Apple owonetsera iPhone 5 adatsika pafupifupi theka poyerekeza ndi gawo loyamba la ndalama (October mpaka December)." Zambiri za Nikkei, ndi izi: "Apple yafunsa Japan Display, Sharp ndi LG Display kuti ichepetse kutumiza kwa LCD pafupifupi theka kuchokera pa 65 miliyoni yomwe idakonzedwa mu Januware-March," malinga ndi anthu omwe amadziwa bwino zomwe zikuchitika zikuwoneka zosamveka? Tiyeni tiganizire pang'ono za manambalawa.
Kwa kotala yomwe yatha posachedwa, kuyerekeza kwa ma iPhones ogulitsidwa kumasiyana pakati pa mayunitsi 43-63 miliyoni. Tikhala anzeru Apple ikatulutsa atolankhani. Komabe, ziyenera kudziwidwa kuti kuwonjezera pa iPhone 5, palinso mibadwo iwiri yam'mbuyo yomwe ikugulitsidwa, i.e. iPhone 4 ndi 4S. Mtengo wapakati wa mayunitsi onse ogulitsidwa ndi pafupifupi 49 miliyoni, kuyerekezera koyembekezeka kwambiri kungawonjeze ndendende 5 miliyoni pamtengowu ku iPhone 40. Popeza iPod touch ya m'badwo wachisanu imagwiritsa ntchito chiwonetsero chomwecho, tiyeni tiwonjezere chiwerengerocho kufika pa 45 miliyoni.
Chaka chilichonse kuyambira kukhazikitsidwa kwa iPhone yoyamba, Apple yawona kuchepa kwapang'onopang'ono kwa malonda, makamaka mu gawo lachiwiri lazachuma (Q2), lomwe ndi - mosayembekezereka - nthawi yomwe ilipo. Mwachitsanzo, malonda a iPod touch akutsika kwambiri m'miyezi iyi. Kufuna kwa iPhone 5 kudakali kolimba, koma ngati Apple ikufuna zowonetsera 1 miliyoni mu Q45, ndizochepa zomwe zingakhale zokwanira mu Q2. Koma zingati? Tiyeni tizitcha 40 miliyoni. Koma ngati Apple itayitanitsa zowonetsera zambiri mu Q1 kuti zitsimikizike, sikudzakhala kofunikira kupanga 40 miliyoni yonse. Adzafuna ndalama zokwana 30-35 miliyoni kuchokera kwa omwe amamupatsa nthawi yonse yozizira. Inde, sitikudziwa zonsezi, tikungolingalira. Komabe, izi sizikudziwika komanso seva ya Nikkei kapena magwero ake osatchulidwa.
Koma palibe chomwe chidayimitsa WSJ kuyerekeza patsamba loyamba - masiku asanu ndi atatu asanafike zotsatira zazachuma za Apple, zomwe zidzatulutsidwa pa Januware 23. Mwambiri, chaka chathachi chimayenera kukhala pachimake cha kampani ya Cupertino, yomwe yataya sitampu yake yabwino. Malinga ndi zolemba zofananira, umu ndi momwe zinthu ku Apple ziyenera kuwonekera. Komabe, ziwerengerozi zikunena mosiyana pomwe kampaniyo idakwanitsa kugulitsa ma iPhones 1 miliyoni pa Q37 chaka chatha. Ngakhale kuyerekezera kochepa kwambiri kwa chaka chino kunali kuwonjezeka kwa 20% kuposa chaka chatha. (Pa 50 miliyoni ingakhale 35%.)
Mphekesera za kuchepa kwa kuchuluka kwa magawo azinthu zinabweretsa ziwerengero zosangalatsa zokhudzana ndi mpikisano. Tidamva koyamba "uthenga wabwino" kuchokera ku Nokia yaku Finland, yomwe idagulitsa mafoni a Lumia miliyoni 1 mu Q4,4. Sizikunena kuti idadula 2% yokha ya msika wake ndikukulitsa malonda ake pochepetsa kwambiri mitengo yamalonda. Zinayambira pa $99, yomwe ili pafupifupi theka la zomwe mafoni ampikisano amayambira. Chifukwa chake iyi ndi nkhani yabwino malinga ndi Nokia. Pulogalamu ya Windows Phone ikadali ndi zambiri zoti iwonetsere zotsatira zofanana kuti zisabwerezedwe.
Cnet inali yokondwa kwambiri ndi chilengezo cha Samsung cha mafoni a Galaxy S okwana 100 miliyoni omwe agulitsidwa Mafoniwa akufunika kwambiri kuti "Flagship Galaxy S3 yogulitsa idafika mayunitsi 30 miliyoni m'miyezi 5, mayunitsi 40 miliyoni m'miyezi 7, ndikugulitsa pafupifupi zidutswa 190. ” Manambala okongola, muyenera kuganiza. Koma samalani, china chake chabwino kwambiri chitha kuchitidwa nawo - tiyeni tiziyike momwe zilili kotala yapitayi. Apple idzagulitsa ma iPhone 5 ambiri momwemo monga Samsung idakwanitsa kugulitsa Galaxy S3 m'miyezi 7! "Akatswiri" ayamba kale kunena kuti Apple ikukumana ndi mavuto osawona manambala a konkire.
Zachidziwikire, Samsung imaperekanso mtundu wakale wa Galaxy S2 kuti mugule. Malinga ndi Cnet, ndi mayunitsi 40 miliyoni ogulitsidwa m'miyezi 20, ndi kubetcha kotetezeka. Chifukwa chake tili ndi 2 miliyoni pamwezi pamtunduwu pamodzi ndi ma Galaxy S17 a 3 miliyoni, omwe malinga ndi Samsung adagulitsidwa mu Q4. Kupitilira apo, tikayerekeza mibadwo iwiri yomaliza mu Q1, Apple idagulitsa ma iPhones 35-45 miliyoni, Samsung pafupifupi 23 miliyoni. Ndizowona kuti tikawerengera mafoni onse a Samsung, zitha kupitilira Apple. Koma ngati tiyang'ana phindu, Apple idzapitirizabe kumenya Samsung ndi ena omwe akupikisana nawo kumeneko. Ndipo amenewo ndi manambala ofunikira.
Inde, malonda a iPhone 5 akugwa ndipo apitirirabe kugwa pamene funde loyamba la kugula ladutsa ndipo Khrisimasi ili pa ife. Tsopano tiyenera kudikirira sabata yamawa pomwe Apple idzatipatsa deta yeniyeni komanso yolondola. Monga momwe zakhalira chizolowezi m'zaka zaposachedwa, tingayembekezere kugulitsa ndi mapindu.
Ndikuganiza kuti iyi ndi njira yowonekera bwino komanso yodziwikiratu yotsitsa mtengo wamtengo wa apulo musanalengeze zotsatira za mbiriyo, pambuyo pake katunduyo adzawulukira. Amene agula tsopano $500 adzagulitsa $600 pamwezi.
Ndendende, ndi masewera chabe kuti muchepetse mtengo kuti wina alakwitse (ndikudabwa kuti ndi magawo angati a Apple omwe ali ndi WSJ mwiniwake) kuti tisadabwe kuti Apple idzatidabwitsa ndi chiyani :-)
Ndiko kulondola, zongopeka zonse sizikukhudzana ndi china chilichonse ndipo kwenikweni ndi kutsika kwa mtengo wagawo kusanachitike kulengeza kwa mbiri ina. Ndipo afika 600 kumapeto kwa Januware :-)
Ndinapumira mmwamba...ndinangotsala pang'ono kugona chifukwa chake...
Nkhani yabwino, ndidafunikira kuwerenga chonga ichi pambuyo pa nkhani zamisala zapa intaneti pa intaneti.
Zolembedwa bwino! Zikomo chifukwa cha manambala ndi ziwerengero.. ;)
Nkhani yabwino, potsiriza wina analemba momwe zilili. Ndakhala ndi zokwanira za "clairvoyants" zomwe zimalosera nthawi zonse kugwa kwa Apple ndikusangalala kuti ma Nexus miliyoni adagulitsidwa m'mwezi umodzi, ngakhale Apple idagulitsa ma iPads katatu m'masiku atatu ...
Chosangalatsa ndichakuti wina adachita zovuta kuti achite. Apple ili pamalo pomwe sakudziwa zomwe zingachitike popanda Jobs ndipo samamukhulupirira kuti athana nazo. Kuphatikiza apo, palinso gulu la naysayers, ndipo Apple iyenera kuthana nazo. Sindimasirira Cook. Mpaka pano, akuchita bwino. Pamafunika chinachake kuti chitseke. Ndipo chidutswa chimenecho chokhala ndi zidziwitso zabodza (ngati chatsimikiziridwa) ndikanapatsa nyuzipepala zolimba kwambiri ngati ndikanakhala Cook.
Zikuwoneka kwa ine kuti simunazindikire tsatanetsatane yaying'ono, kutanthauza kuti mapanganowo amamalizidwa kutengera kuyembekezera kwamtundu wina, ndipo ngakhale Apple sanazindikire mpaka Disembala kuti Khrisimasi yotsatira si Marichi. anali kuyembekezera kuchepa kwa kufunikira. Chifukwa chake kuchepetsedwa kwa madongosolo kumatanthauza kuti, mosiyana ndi malingaliro, msika ukukula mosiyana ndi momwe Apple amaganizira. Koma zowonadi apo ayi okonza gawo la WSJ ndianthu okonda masewera ndichifukwa chake ayenera kufotokozedwa bwino.
Zoonadi, popanda chidziwitso sikungatheke kuwunika, kungolingalira, koma monga momwe mumanenera kuti wina sanadziwe ndipo adatsiriza, momwemonso. Ndikhoza kulingalira mofananamo. Chifukwa chiyani Apple idayitanitsa zida zambiri, malinga ndi inu, "kungotsimikiza"? Kodi iwo anali ndi ziyembekezo zazikulu chotero ndipo sanathe kuzilingalira molingana ndi ziŵerengero za mkati? 50% kusiyana kwakukulu. Apple sanadziwe kuti Q lotsatira silingakhale labwino, mwina ndiatsopano pamsika ndipo sadziwa kuti njira yogulitsira ndi chiyani? Iwo adangopeza pambuyo pa mapeto a Q pomwe IP5 idayambitsidwa + Khrisimasi momwemo kuti Q yotsatira idzakhala yoyipa? Malingaliro anga, chidziwitso chomwe chikuyenda padziko lonse lapansi tsopano sichikukhudzana ndi zotsatira zomwe tingayembekezere tsopano, izo zidzakhala zabwino, koma za zomwe zidzachitike, mwachitsanzo, kugulitsa koipitsitsa mu Q woipa kuposa malonda am'mbuyomu muzochitika zofanana, kapena a. IP yatsopano, kapena china chilichonse "chosayembekezeka".
Koma monga ndinalembera, ndikungolingalira.
Chowonadi ndi chakuti mumalipira nthawi zonse gawo loperekedwa (chiwonetsero, ndi zina zotero) komanso mphamvu zopangira zomwe zimagwiritsidwa ntchito ndi wogulitsa. Izi zimawerengedwa mu mtengo wa gawo -> voliyumu yaying'ono = magawo okwera mtengo, ngati kumwa kumatsika kwambiri kuposa momwe adalamulidwa kupanga. Ndi yosavuta, kupanga mizere kwa chiwerengero cha zigawo ayenera kulipidwa. Palibe amene ali ndi malingaliro abwino omwe akukonzekera kukhala ndi makumi khumi peresenti ya mphamvu zawo zopangira zomwe zatsala.
ASP(Average Selling Price) ya mafoni a m'manja a Nokia inali $204 mu Q3/2012 ndi $240 mu Q4/2012. Kotero mu kotala yapitayi yakula kwambiri. Ziwerengerozi zidasindikizidwa ndi Nokia. Pakati pa mafoni a m'manja, Lumia anawerengedwa ndi WP ndi Symbians (omwe ali ndi ASP pafupi ndi zomwe zatchulidwa m'nkhaniyi, mazana a madola).